Bitcoin Traders Eye $138,000 Price Following Coinbase Premium Breaching Break-Even Point

As we enter 2025, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of a bullish trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing an impressive 8.5% price increase. This upward momentum has sparked predictions from multiple analysts, who are forecasting new all-time high targets for the largest crypto asset.

Breaking Past $100,000: A Pivotal Turn

On December 8th, BTC closed a daily candle above $100,000 for the first time, but since then, it has only remained above this level for six days. This brief respite has sparked debate among analysts, with some predicting that a daily close above $100,000 will be a pivotal turn in Bitcoin’s price action.

Posty’s Analysis: A Bullish Rally from Q1 2021

According to Posty, a crypto trader, BTC’s current price action reflects its bullish rally from Q1 2021. After considering the laws of diminishing returns over a period of four years, Posty believes that if BTC continues to follow its previous cycle pattern, it will be valued at around $138,000 in February.

Cryptochimpanz: A ‘Nasty’ Setup for Bitcoin

Meanwhile, Cryptochimpanz, a Bitcoin proponent, has highlighted a potential ‘nasty’ setup from Bitcoin’s previous bull run. The trader believes that if we follow a similar path, the price of Bitcoin can go as high as $200k.

Axel Adler Jr.: 90% of Total Supply in Profit

In addition to these predictions, Axel Adler Jr. has highlighted that 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. The researcher explained that unless there is a ‘black swan’ in the current cycle, BTC drawdowns could be minimal and emulate its 2017 bull run rather than 2021.

Coinbase Premium Returns to Neutral Index

After a period of rigorous selling between December 18th and January 2nd, Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has returned to a neutral index as recorded on January 4th. IT Tech, an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, explained that the premium increasing back to a breakeven point shows that ‘sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.’

Retail Investor Sentiment: A Contrasting View

However, it’s essential to remember that the Coinbase premium largely tracks US retail investor sentiment rather than institutional sentiment. Cointelegraph earlier reported that overall Bitcoin retail investors’ transaction volumes have dropped significantly since BTC reached $108,000 last month.

Darkfost’s Analysis: Retail Interest Dropped Significantly

With the rolling 30-day change in retail-sized transaction volumes under $10,000 dropping to lows witnessed in September 2024, Darkfost, an onchain analyst, said that it means retail interest had dropped significantly. However, this opens an ideal buying opportunity over the long term.

Technical Analysis: Break of Structure (BOS)

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has undergone a bullish break of structure (BOS) after closing a daily candle above $97,000 last week. Crypto Scient, a markets trader, emphasized that $100,000 remains a key inflection point for Bitcoin.

A Break Above or Below $99k: A Crucial Decision

The trader also noted that unless we breach $99k and flip it to support, lower prices in January are likely. Simple triggers for the market include breaking and flipping $99k or retesting the $90-88k zone.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price surge has sparked predictions from multiple analysts, with some forecasting new all-time high targets. While retail investor sentiment is currently bearish, institutional investors seem to be returning to the market. As we enter 2025, it will be essential to monitor these trends and adjust our strategies accordingly.

Disclaimer

This article is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.