VanEck Research Head Reports Over 77 Percent Chance of 2025 US Solana ETF Listing

The Odds Favor a Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the United States

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors and analysts alike are speculating about the potential for more exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to list in the United States. One area of particular interest is the possibility of a Solana (SOL) ETF listing, which has garnered significant attention recently.

Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Odds

On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket reported that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. However, this forecast may be considered conservative by some experts. In a recent post on the X platform, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, described Polymarket’s forecast as "underpriced."

Sigel’s Optimism

Sigel’s optimism mirrors industrywide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump has stated his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which could lead to a favorable regulatory environment for crypto ETFs.

How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2, according to its website.

Favorable Listing Prospects

In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. While the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly challenged their plans, citing concerns that SOL qualifies as a security rather than a commodity, industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.

The Grantor Trust Structure

Issuers of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are currently the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, use an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.

The Role of Trump’s Presidential Win

In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This sentiment is echoed by many industry analysts, who see Trump’s win as a catalyst for increased regulatory support for crypto ETFs.

Polymarket: A Popular Betting Platform

Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Bullish Bettors

Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. With the odds favoring a Solana ETF listing, investors may want to consider placing their bets on this potentially lucrative opportunity.

The Future of Crypto ETFs

As the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, it’s clear that 2025 will be a crucial year for crypto ETFs. With several proposed listings waiting in the wings and industry analysts predicting a surge in popularity, now is the time for investors to get ahead of the curve.

Conclusion

While there are still many challenges to overcome before Solana ETFs can list in the US, the odds are certainly in their favor. With Polymarket’s forecast at 84% and Sigel’s optimism leading the charge, it’s likely that we’ll see several new crypto ETFs listed in the coming year. As investors, we must stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions to capitalize on these opportunities.

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