US GDP growth of 3.3% last quarter capped an unexpectedly strong annual performance.
Markets have increased confidence in a potential March interest rate cut.

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Introduction
The U.S. economy continued to show resilience in the fourth quarter of 2023, with key indicators pointing towards a strong performance. This report provides an analysis of the country’s economic data, focusing on GDP growth rates, consumer spending trends, and other critical economic factors.
GDP Growth Rate
US GDP grew at a robust rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking the third consecutive quarterly increase. This performance underscores the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy despite headwinds such as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.
Breaking Down GDP Contributions
The growth in real GDP was driven by several key sectors:
- Consumer Spending: Comprised approximately two-thirds of the economy, consumer spending continued to play a pivotal role in driving economic momentum.
- Business Investment: Contribution from business investment further amplified economic growth, with unexpected additions to fourth-quarter GDP.
inventories and Government Spending
Residential investment saw a significant uptick for the second consecutive quarter, signaling a possible shift in consumption patterns. Business inventories unexpectedly added to GDP, reflecting a dynamic economy.
Consumer Spending Trends
Consumer spending remains a cornerstone of economic growth in the U.S., contributing about two-thirds of the overall economy. Breaking down the components:
- Transportation: Spending on transportation services showed steady growth.
- Food Services and Recreation: Combined spending on food services and recreation reached an all-time high, driven by rising disposable incomes.
Underlying Demand
The GDP report highlighted a key gauge of underlying demand—inflation-adjusted final sales to private domestic purchasers. This metric rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, indicating stable consumption patterns despite inflationary pressures.
Business Investment and Inventory Management
Business investment remains critical to long-term economic growth, with unexpected additions to GDP signaling robust activity in the sector. Stripping out inventories and other non-core components provided a clearer picture of underlying economic health.
Residential Investment
Residential investment continued its upward trajectory, marking a second consecutive quarter of growth since early 2021. This reflects a resilient housing market and strong demand for residential construction.
Key Data Points
- GDP Growth Rate: 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- Consumer Spending: Dominates the economy, contributing about two-thirds of total output.
- Business Investment: Surprise addition to GDP highlights expansionary activity.
- Residential Investment: Steady growth continues despite broader inflationary pressures.
Conclusion
The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in the fourth quarter, with strong GDP growth and robust consumer spending driving key indicators. Central bankers must carefully navigate the delicate balance of easing monetary policy while avoiding overreaching measures that could harm economic stability.
Stay tuned for further updates on economic trends and analysis.
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